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Climate model based evaluation

CMIP & SSP Scenarios

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a collaborative project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). It is designed to improve our understanding of climate change. The models are developed in phases to foster climate model improvements and to support national and international assessments of climate change. More recent phases include more realistic scenarios of climate forcing for historical and future conditions. CMIP6 supports the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments, providing essential data for understanding future climate scenarios using SSPs.

CMIP6 Rainfall Comparison Tool

Simple view of historical forcing signals and SSP projections from CMIP6 models.

Correlation: -

Historical Forcing Comparison

GHG
Aerosol
Historical

Quick states

CMIP6 summary

Model Name + IMD

Baseline performance and observed range

Start year
1950
End year
2014
Reference
IMD baseline
Forcing
Historical
Correlation
N/A

This summary highlights the two key evaluation windows used in the rainfall comparison chart.

What are you seeing?
Compare how each CMIP6 model represents historical forcing pathways against the IMD baseline.
Why it matters
Scenario-level differences (SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) help estimate future rainfall risks and planning needs.

What are SSPs in CMIP?

//SSP Explanation

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are future scenarios that combine human societal development with greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on climate change. For climate variables like rainfall, SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 represent different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations and their influence on future rainfall patterns.

// Bullet Points
  • SSP1-1.9: Low emission scenario (sustainable pathway)
  • SSP2-4.5: Intermediate emission scenario (middle-of-the-road)
  • SSP5-8.5: High emission scenario (fossil-fuel intensive)

SSP Projection Chart

SSP projection

Climate pathway and future scenario

Start year
2015
End year
2100
Current scenario
SSP245
Dataset
CMIP6
Horizon
Long-term